Stablecoin arbitrage
A stablecoin promises to be worth a dollar, but it is worth exactly what people pay for it. We show who has drifted and by how much — measured against the real dollar, not against USDT.
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What the deviation is measured against
This is the central question here, and it is usually skirted. Almost everything on exchanges is quoted in USDT, so the easy move is to treat USDT as the dollar — but USDT is not the dollar. It trades around 0.9997, and measuring from it makes every second coin show a deviation of exactly that size, which does not exist.
So we take the real dollar where it exists. Coinbase and Kraken list pairs against live USD with bank funding — money in an account, not a token. Those give the USDT and USDC rates, and everything else is converted through them. The rate we measure from is shown on the board, so the basis of the calculation is visible.
Which coins are included
Only those with a stated one-to-one peg: USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD, TUSD, PYUSD, USDD, USD1, USDG, RLUSD, USDP, GUSD, USDS, USDe, USDf and others. Each is labelled with its issuer — behind one ticker stands a specific company with specific reserves, and a depeg usually starts with news about it.
Yield-bearing wrappers such as sUSDe, USDY, stUSDT and sDAI are deliberately excluded. They appreciate by design as interest accrues, so their «deviation from the dollar» is the holder's yield, not a broken peg.
How people make money on this
Across venues. The coin is cheaper on one platform and dearer on another — buy there, transfer, sell here. The catch is the transfer: withdrawals cost money, and at spreads of hundredths of a percent the fee eats everything. We subtract it and show the net.
Waiting for the peg. Buy below a dollar and wait for it to recover. No transfer needed, but you need to know why it slipped: a temporary demand imbalance recovers in hours, while problems with the issuer's reserves never do.
Redeeming with the issuer. The most reliable and the least accessible: the issuing company undertakes to buy the coin back at a dollar. In practice this needs an account with the issuer, document checks and usually a size upwards of a hundred thousand.
What «max size» means
How many dollars actually fill at the shown prices, given the best resting orders in both books. Above it the order walks deeper and the spread disappears.